Slope cracks, indicating incipient failure, in the hills near Botha, Muzzaffarabad (Petley, D.N. 2006).

This alert bulletin aims to highlight a potentially serious environmental hazard faced by the earthquake affected areas, which is going to assume alarming proportions during the coming monsoon season. It is a major threat to the lives and livelihoods of a large population. The cracks and unstable earth resulting from the earthquake may cause massive landslides and loss of life and agricultural land in the event of heavy or extended rains.

According to Dr. David Petley, University of Durham, this is probably is the greatest landslide threat worldwide at present (see the reference at the end). In the monsoon season, the combination of intense, prolonged rainfall and increasing groundwater levels presents a high risk of landslide disaster.

Geotechnical scientists (landslides experts) working in the earthquake affected areas have realized that slope stability issues were much more serious than originally estimated (see images). With monsoons due in mid July, when an average rainfall of 650 mm could be expected in 6 weeks, it is highly likely that soil made heavy by absorbing water might trigger unstable slopes to slide down. The catastrophe has been prevented so far by the absence of heavy rains since the earthquake.

A multiple crack array in the area of Upper Killha, near Muzzaffarabad (Petley, D.N. 2006).

The Government authorities such as the Geological Survey of Pakistan are in the process of identifying landslide threats in the area. However, to-date no comprehensive landslide hazard mapping and subsequent risk analysis has been conducted to cover the entire quake affected area. Moreover, no aerial photography is available at present, and neither any systematic stability analysis or ground investigation has been conducted on such slopes.

According to news reports, the AJK Government and ERRA – based on preliminary studies - have plans to relocate some 55,000 earthquake survivors around Muzzaffarabad to safer areas before the monsoon season. However, it is clear that while the authorities have a genuine concern, they are struggling to deal with this potential disaster.

Experts have advised the local communities to stay away from the river beds because of the risk of flash floods, to carefully observe the large cracks on the hill slopes once the rainy season sets in, and keep the local authorities informed of any changes. Moreover, measures should be taken to divert runoff water from the cracks on unstable slopes. This needs to be done immediately.

With the monsoons due in barely 15 days, this is indeed a very challenging task. However, there is no alternative to a brisk action - for disaster preparedness and mitigation - if another human and environmental catastrophe is to be prevented.

References:

Petley, David N. June 07 2006. (In email conversation),
Wilson Professor of Hazard and Risk, International Landslide Centre.
Department of Geography, University of Durham, Durham DH1 3LE.
Tel: +44 191 334 1909 Fax: +44 191 334 1801.
Email: d.n.petley@durham.ac.uk .
http://www.landslidecentre.org

For more information:

IUCN, Shahzad: shahzad.ahmad@isb.iucnp.org
IUCN, Afnan Khan: afnan.khan@isb.iucnp.org
CARE, Atfah Parvez: aparvez@care.org
WWF, Ibrahim Khan: ibk65@yahoo.com